Why Sales Forecasting Is Wrong


We should expect our sales forecasting to be flawed. ALWAYS.

In fact, sales forecasting is not even about forecasting. More on that in a moment.

The Proper Sales Forecasting Mindset

Starting at the beginning with the mindset and the false gods and idolatry, leaders love to claim their expectations around forecasting accuracy.

Sales forecasting is about improving the forecasting over time, which will take time.

* January 1 forecast for March 31 is not often correct.

* February 1 it should be better.

* March 1 is better still.

If one starts from scratch, the swings will be massive.

If one is starting out on January 1, don’t be surprised if your forecast is only 40-50% accurate by the time you get to March 31.

Yes, February and March should improve.

Then, in April, forecasting for June 30 may be 55%-60% accurate.

And if one is a start-up, then it will be even lower.

We can expect it to become much better over time.

Forecasting is about improving the ability to forecast accurately.

If anyone thinks they can have an accurate forecast all the time, I will remind people to look at the announcements of quarterly statements by public companies when they have to “shift their guidance” downward.

Those companies have a ton of brilliant financial minds, and they are still getting it wrong.

So, what is forecasting really about?

Shame on you if you are only using your sales forecast to complain about the sales team. It means you are not a good leader. In fact, I would question your leadership ability entirely.

So what’s the best reason for a sales forecast? It helps you figure out where your sales team needs support, and where they need sales training and sales process training. Which then means perhaps we should look at your messaging. So yeah, it’s about marketing and product marketing too.

Realizing that you and your team need support? Schedule a time to chat here and let’s come up with a plan together.

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